Differentdrummer

Should Jews Support Israel?

Israel's military assault in Gaza has led to what can only be called a massacre in which so far more than 1200 Gazans have died, while Israel has suffered 10 deaths, several of which have come from "friendly" fire.

According to official Israeli sources, during the entire period 2002-2008 prior to the current Israeli invasion, less than 25 Israelis have died from Hamas' rockets and no more than 1 during the six months prior to the end of the ceasefire which was occasioned by a November 4 Israeli raid which killed one Palestinian. B'Tselem, the Israeli human rights organization, has calculated that Israeli raids and aerial attacks have killed 2,700 Palestinians during the same period.

It's hard to escape the view that Israel has wildly overreacted to Hamas' actions.  By the standards of international law, Israel has committed a war of aggression and war crimes. Hamas' rocket attacks also are war crimes, but their minimal consequences never constituted a threat to the existence of the state of Israel and therefore could not legally justify Israel's response. Moreover, it is now known that Israel had been planning military intervention months before the end of the recent cease-fire. Since 2007 Israel had been blockading Gaza and destroying any hope for its economy and jeopardizing the health of its 1.5 million residents.

I come from a secular Jewish family that never had a significant Jewish ethnic identity expressed in conversations or responses to the news. My parents emigrated to the United States around 1910 and had no known relatives who died in Nazi concentration camps or were killed in other actions directed against Jews as Jews. I cannot recall a single conversation regarding the state of Israel during the time, prior to 1964, when I lived at home and thereafter. At the same time I did feel good, despite not being a Dodger fan, that Sandy Koufax was considered one of the greatest pitchers in the history of baseball.

I feel my background frees me from having to cope with powerful emotional sentiments towards Israel when evaluating it as a state.On the other hand, to some friends and acquaintances, and certainly to many religious or ethnically-identified Jews, it discredits me when I strongly criticize Israel's actions and even question its moral legitimacy---which is not the same thing as its undeniable existence now and in the future. I can understand this argument, but don't accept it because I can't honor emotional reasoning as a way of making sense of the world.

Emotional reasoning  involves believing feelings are facts, i.e., if I feel something strong enough it must be true. To me, feelings can be guides to truth or falsehood and have no evidential value in themselves. 

For many years I had little interest in Israel and that fed my ignorance of its history. I believed the conflict with the Palestinians to be too complicated to resolve and there was right on both sides---two people who had been victimized by others (i.e,Turks, the British, Germans) fighting each other in perpetuity. 

I visited Israel in 1975, spontaneously and without advance preparation. I stayed on a Kibbutz for a short time and visited Tel-  Aviv and Jerusalem. I found the trip fascinating, but found myself getting into endless arguments with Israelis when I took a neutral position on their conflict with the Palestinians. The 1973 war with Egypt had ended fairly recently and the country still had a siege mentality. I also had to explain why Nixon was impeached as Israelis seemed to have a love affair with him despite his anti-Semitism, about which they knew nothing.

When Henry Kissinger arrived for some event a large crowd gathered near the YMCA in Jerusalem where I was staying to protest against what they thought was his one-sided (i.e., anti-Israel) efforts to create regional peace. I was present as well, but only objected to his criminal actions in Vietnam and especially Chile, where my former student, Frank Teruggi, had been one of the two Americans executed two years earlier during the Kissinger-facilitated Pinochet coup d'etat.

My greater knowledge of how the struggle between Israel and the Palestinians developed when I read Benny Morris', The Making of the Palestinian Refugee Problem, 1947-49 (1989) twenty years ago and it opened my eyes to the reality that Israel's creation was built upon the ethnic cleansing of 750,000 people who lived on the land Israel coveted. Morris, then a  critic of Israeli policy, but now a supporter of a hard-line, admits his embrace of Israel is simply based on ethnic loyalty. If he were a Palestinian he would be on the other side and this, incidentally, was a view implied by Israel's first Prime Minister, David Ben-Gurian, when he said:

"Why should the Arabs make peace?...We have taken their country. Sure God promised it to us, but what does that matter to them? Our God is not theirs. We came from Israel, it's true, but two thousand years ago and what is that to them?" 

Morris' work changed my attitudes towards the conflict. I have read other books and reviews since then. Some critics have said he could have gone further in showing the displacement by violence and the threat of violence was a deliberate political policy and not simply generated by military facts on the ground. He also relied too heavily on available official Israeli government documents and neglected to tap Palestinian sources---eyewitness accounts of the ethnic cleansing or what they call the Nakba (Catastrophe)---a strange omission given the vital role the testimony of survivors of Nazism has played in providing a portrait of the extermination of millions of Jews. For an alternative viewpoint, see Israeli historian Ilan Pappe's The Ethnic Cleansing of Palestine (2007).

After reading Morris I read other works that also changed my beliefs. I discovered that in the post-war WWII period American Jews were strongly divided between Zionists and anti-Zionists and the American Jewish Committee was against the formation of a Jewish state. They favored increasing Jewish immigration from European DP (Displaced Persons) camps to Palestine in a mutli-ethnic federation still under British administration. Zionists in Palestine opposed such a confederation, even though it would have led to the immediate liberation of tens of thousands of DPs, because they wanted a Jewish state not a piece of the pie controlled by Britain.

I also learned that American Zionists opposed liberalizing immigration quotas to the US to insure that Jews in DP camps prefering to come to the U.S. would have to settle for Palestine. (American opposition to liberalizing immigration laws, whether for Jews or non-Jews in DP camps, was strong in this period). Thus, Zionists placed the need to augment the number of Jews in Palestine above the immediate well-being and desires of some of those who had barely survived the Nazi genocide.

The motives of Jewish anti-Zionists were varied. Some were ardent assimilationists; some may have feared that if there was a Jewish state Amerian Jews, if U.S. politics moved rightward and anti-Semitism grew, might be accused of dual loyalty or pressured to emigrate to Israel. Others might have been aware of the demographics of Palestine and wished to avoid the violent consequences of trying to establish Israel. Many leftist Jews may have been opposed to an ethnically-identified state in principle. Finally, some orthodox Jews had theological reasons for rejecting a homeland. 

Regardless of what motivated anti-Zionists at the time what seems critical is that in the period before Israel was born it one could be Jewish and identify with the religion and/or the ethnicity and  not support a Jewish state. Alternatively, one could support a Jewish state and not be supportive of Jewish self-determination if it interfered with Zionist priorities.

Finally, before the capture, trial and execution of Adolf Eichmann in 1961, Israeli leaders did not valorize or even focus much attention on survivors and never emphasized the relationship between the Nazi genocide and the need to have a Jewish state. Zionism, after all, was a nineteenth century ideology that predated Nazism, though Nazism created the preconditions for its evolution from ideology to practice.

The question arises whether Jews should necessarily have allegiance to the state of Israel? Why was it permissable to debate this in 1946, at a time when the situation of world Jewry was most precarious, but not now?

Perhaps the question should be approached from a more universal standpoint: religious and ethnic identity and loyalty.

Judaism is in part a religious belief system as is Hinduism, Islam and Christianity and Shinto among many others. One can decide to accept its tenets or not. If one does not, clearly there is no reason to support a state founded on religious principles---a theocratic state. Of course, a belief in Judaism is not required to ally with the Israeli state and its policies and Israel isn't a theocratic state. One can even be anti-Semitic, as Christian Zionists are, and support Israel because of religious beliefs which require the state of Israel to exist before the Rapture---after which Jews who don't convert to Christianity will be consigned to Hell.

But even if one is a religious Jew, is it necessary to give support to the actions of a religious state or co-religionists who reside there or elsewhere?

I think not. Besides the fact that within each religion there are schisms and one's particular allegiance might be at variance with those of the state in question (e.g., Shiites living in Iraq during Saddam Hussein's rule or Sunni living there now under Shiite dominance), a state can engage in behavior that is abhorrent in the name of a shared religion. Shiites around the world shouldn't be obligated to support the rule of Iranian clerics since 1979 and could want to have those rulers overthrown, even if states with non-Shiaa populations played the leading role in such upheaval. They might do this because of greater allegiance to the cause of human rights than upholding their co-religionists. I'm not suggesting this is feasible or even desirable in regard to Iran---I would strongly favor internal change there and elsewhere, hopefully peaceful----but only that Shiia supporting another method shouldn't be accused of being self-hating or infidels.

What about those who identify with Judaism simply as a shared ethnicity? Here as well, we would hardly condemn Italian-American, German-American or Japanese-American who, during WWII, wanted the US to defeat Italy, Germany or Japan as being self-hating or traitors to their ethnic group. On the contrary, we might consider them as American patriots or anti-fascists who supported democracy.

And what about Muslim Arabs who share an ethnicity and religious affiliation with Osama bin laden? Aren't we always wanting them to reject loyalty based on these membership groups and replace it with adherence to a set of values that rejects terrorism as a tactic? 

If we move from ethnicity to race, haven't all-white juries in the deep south who refused to convict whites who lynched  blacks such as Emmet Till rightly earned contempt? Or black jurors who refused to convict OJ? Or Al Sharpton, who defended Tawana Brawley even after it was clear she perpetrated a hoax?

Why then must Jews toe the line when it comes to Israel? Why can't they identify themselves as Jews and condemn Israeli policies and even question the moral basis of the foundation of the Israeli state on the grounds that a homeland of one oppressed people should not be created by oppressing others.

Now, all this said, it's true that the options that Jewish DPs faced after WWII were daunting. Their homes were destroyed and they often, especially in Poland, encountered virulent anti-Semitism and violence. Western countries didn't want to admit them as immigrants either. Perhaps justice would have entailed creating a Jewish state in Germany, but that was never considered as far as I know, and other non-Jewish but displaced victims of Nazis might have wanted some turf there as well.

The solution, to create a Jewish state in Palestine and do so by means of ethnic cleansing, could only be defended as realpolitik: the Palestinians had less power to exclude Jews than other countries and most in the DP camps prefered Palestine to other alternatives.

But that choice, while practical in the short term, eventually led to the tragic situation that Israel and the Palestinians face today. When a state has been created on the basis of disposession those who now have control want nothing more than a passive acceptance of the status quo. Those who have been uprooted, if they have the capability, will not accept this, or enough won't so that the victors sleep will be disturbed. The winners seek amnesia; the vanquished want to regain what they have lost. It is ironic that Jews, who justifiably want the world to "never forget" their Holocaust, would prefer the Palestinians to forget their Nakba.

Israel has compounded their "original sin"---ethnic cleansing to found their state--- by the expansion of settlements. Most Jews view this as a phenomenon distinct from the events of the late 1940s, but there are strong parallels since force and intimidation have been at the root of both expansions of Israeli territory.

It is clearly unrealistic to envision a return to 1946. Israel now exists and will continue to do so. The Palestinian tragedy can never be undone. Some political settlement will eventually be required because as much as Israel wishes to maintain the status quo demographics will make it impossible. Either Israel will have to be a non-religious bi-national state with an eventual Palestinian majority or the Palestinians will have to get their own.

As the vast majority of Israelis and Palestinians prefer a two-state solution the problem involves choosing political leaders that are willing to achieve it. To date both sides have not done so and while the Israelis cast blame on their enemies for this there is no clear evidence Israelis are willing to make necessary territorial concessions if they can postpone them ad infinitum.

Regardless of rhetoric about peace, successive Israeli governments have allowed settlements to increase. Hamas' support grows in proportion to Israel's expansion and aggression. While it might not be the ideal political leadership for Palestinians in Israeli eyes Israel has no moral standing to criticize it, especially since back in the 70s and 80s it funded Islamist groups out of which Hamas developed as a counterweight against Fatah.  Israeli leaders also reasoned that if such groups became powerful they would resist peace negotiations entirely, thus allowing Israel to say it had no "peace partner" and maintain the status quo. (Interestingly, this was an approach the U.S. utilized in funding Jihadists to fight the pro-Soviet Afghan government. In that case, Zbigniew Brzezinki, President Carter's National Security Advisor, hoped these intransigent extremists would force Moscow to intervene to save its allies and get bloodied---payback for Soviet support of North Vietnam. Jihadists were ideal proxies because they would never negotiate a settlement with the Afghan government or the USSR).

Hamas, it must be noted, is primarily a nationalist movement not one motivated by an international jihadist ideology such as Al Qaeda. Despite its rhetoric about never accepting the existence of Israel it has publically supported, as a practical matter, recognition of Israel within its 1967 borders, albeit with the right of return---a sticking point that could be addressed by land swaps. There is no reason to believe that Hamas is a unique nationalist movement, one unwilling to negotiate at all with its enemy. Even Osama bin Laden has offered "peace" with the U.S. if our government stopped supporting what he deems anti-Muslim policies in the Mideast.

Israel's intransigence is bolstered by the United States' willingness to "enable" its policies, chiefly by providing military aid. American Jews, the overwhelming majority of whom support Israel, if not all its policies, play a significant role in making both Democrats and Republicans maintain this stance. That is not to say that, apart from domestic politics, Israel has not served American "interests" abroad. Israel has at times been enlisted to aid allies we couldn't (e.g., advising South African intelligence services during apartheid; aiding counter-insurgency in Guatemala) or play cop to help the U.S. maintain its power in the oil-rich Mid-East. But, if American Jewry could distance itself from Israel as much as it is hoped other religious and ethnic groups can transcend tribal loyalties, it would strongly contribute to an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Reading Obama

We live in economically perilous times so it's a rarity when a new industry is launched and becomes instantly successful. But that's what's happened with the Barack Obama Deconstruction industry. The punditocracy, blogosphere and political class have all weighed in 24/7. 

Will Obama betray his progressive base? Does his appointment of Clinton administration veterans and extension of an olive branch to McCain-supporting and Obama-bashing Joe Lieberman testify to his embrace of the "America is a center-right nation" narrative that conservatives desperately wish for? Or, is he cleverly channeling Don Corleone's wisdom to "Keep your friends close and your enemies closer," and going one step further--- getting his rivals in the Democratic Party to implement his possibly more leftish policies. (In Lieberman's case, there might also be an echo of Louisiana Governor Huey Long's strategically using ex-convicts as personal assistants. Owing all to Long, their loyalty could be counted on. Only Obama's forgiveness saved Lieberman from banishment from the Democratic caucus and he's been a loyal lapdog for the President-elect ever since).

To deal with my own confusion on the matter I decided belatedly to read Obama's first book, Dreams from My Father, published in 1995 at a time when he certainly wasn't seriously contemplating running for the presidency. It may, therefore, represent a more authentic guide to his approach to politics and social policy than his 2006 book, The Audacity of Hope, or speeches on the campaign trail. Of course, Obama's life has changed so much since Dreams was written, a time before he entered government as a state legislator, became a U.S. Senator and ran succesfully for the White House.  Perhaps his ever-widening social circle, specifically his greater contacts with economic and political elites, and new intellectual influences, have fundamentally changed his world-view. But, his unique background for a President-elect still should at least inform the way he processes new experiences and acquaintances.

What seems clear from reading his autobiography is that Obama is someone who is deeply aware, by personal experience and education, of gaping inequities within American society and the even greater ones that exist in the Third World. He is also cognizant of the role that American foreign policy has played in supporting those who tyrannize their own people, whether it be the Shah of Iran or Suharto of Indonesia.

Although, while campaigning, Obama would often refer to his "mother from Kansas" as if to conjure up an image of a cooking-baking home-maker with no political leanings, his mother was actually very sympathetic to the emerging civil rights and peace movements, anti-colonial struggles and problems of underdevelopment in Africa and Asia. His Kenyan father had similar proclivities and first-hand experience as a colonial subject.

Obama also lived in Indonesia as a small child during the early days of the pro- U.S Suharto regime which massacred as many as half a million supporters of his predecessor, a non-aligned nationalist. Obama witnessed his once confident Indonesian step-father cower in the face of political repression against those suspected of being disloyal to the new strongman.

As a rare black youth growing up in Hawaii with a white mother and grandparents he assimililated mainstream culture, but also recognized that he was different, and viewed as such, within his generally very accepting peer group. Several disturbing incidents, as well as awareness of the civil rights struggles on the mainland, nurtured a growing need to find a viable identity as a black man---not a biracial one. This quest accelerated when he went to Los Angeles and New York to attend colleges in cities with large, diverse and vibrant politically black communities.

Obama was an undergraduate in the 70s when many veterans of 60s activism became academics and re-shaped the social sciences and humanities. He was surely exposed by professors and fellow students to Marxism, feminist thought and the various strands of black nationalism and radicalism.

In Dreams from My Father Obama shows how he managed during his student days and afterward to  peacefully co-exist with all the strands of black consciousness, while never fully embracing any. He remained committed, often against his instincts, to universalism and integration as opposed to identity politics and nationalism. Yet, Obama saw black nationalism as an effective psychological defense against recalcitrant white racism and a useful tool for political mobilization. What he consistently eschewed are mere words---rhetoric---ironic for someone whose own eventual meteoric political rise owed so much to that. Effectiveness is what concerned him.

He also understood, early on, that it was necessary to avoid the persona of the "angry black man" in order to make his way in the larger society. Being polite invariably put white people at ease.

Obama's work as community organizer in Chicago after leaving New York gave him a practical education in the limits of coalition building---just because two groups should have common interests doesn't mean they perceive them or are willing to focus on what unites them. Specifically, race often trumps class solidarity even in the face of economic hardship. If there is little hope, for example, of dramatic success for a grand coalition---white and black working class struggling to save factories that once employed both---better to look out for number one. The lesson Obama may have learned is that it's difficult to ask people to exert energy in behalf of goals they perceive as pie in the sky.

Obama came to realize the importance of movements from below---mobilizing anger for social change---but also their limits. He understood that insurgents in democratic socities need motivated and effective allies in the corridors of power to bring about rapid societal reform.

One of the experiences that has not been mentioned by pundits, but Obama clearly notes, was the untimely death of Harold Washington. Washington, Chicago's first black mayor and a charismatic reformer, might well have formed a symbiotic relationship with community organizers like Obama. His death occurred early in his tenure when he was moving carefully with an eye towards long-term institutional change. Washington assumed he would be in office for a long time and did not have to fast-track reforms.

The current debate over whether Obama will be inclined to move swiftly or deliberately to institute his vision might be better informed if the lessons he learned from Harold Washington's unexpectedly brief tenure is factored in. The economic crisis itself might compell rapid implementation of policies aimed at recovery, but perhaps, reflecting on Washington's fate, Obama will feel that he cannot assume he has eight or even four years to institute reforms in other arenas as well.

Although a long-time smoker, at 47 Obama probably doesn't have to worry about sudden death from cardiac arrest if he plans to serve two terms. On the other hand, the fear of assassination by a racist or someone convinced he is a secret Muslim terrorist sympathizer or the anti-Christ---widely disseminated assertions in viral emails during the campaign---should not be discounted. Obama probably has already received more death threats and hate mail than any other President-elect, if not all others put together. Perhaps that is one reason why he has assembled massive task forces to examine and evaluate every nook and cranny of government policy so he can hit the ground running on January 20, 2009. He may try to mobilize his supporters---connected by text messages and youtube---to push from below against congressional and media resistance to his programs.

Obama's decision to work quickly or with caution on issues other than economic recovery might also be affected by his unusually high approval ratings in polls. On November 6 the respected Rasmussen Poll indicated a 52-44 percent spread between those who approved of him and those who didn't. Six weeks later it has grown to 69-29. This is political capital he can spend. By 2010, after mid-term elections, he might, if history is a guide, have fewer supporters in the public and allies in the congress. But maybe he will show once again that history can be rewritten.

Still, the question remains, what is Obama's vision? On the basis of Dreams from My Father I would imagine he will try to move the U.S. closer to the kind of social democracy found in Western Europe, bolster labor unions and worker protections, rely less on military force than diplomacy and economic aid in foreign policy. He also believes in the rule of law and should seek to reverse Bush Administration's practices which border on or embrace criminality (e.g., illegal wiretaps, contravention of the Geneva Accords regarding torture).

Obama's experience as a community organizer and law professor might also conduct a massive "adult education" offensive---speaking directly to the public on a regular basis to let them understand what and why he is doing something. But Dreams also suggests that while Obama's goals are to empower the citizenry and provide more safety nets and opportunities he is open to a variety of suggestions regarding how this can be done and committed to trial and error experimentation along the way. He is, above all, results oriented and perhaps that is a major reason why he has generally chosen cabinet officials and advisors who are  billed as extremely competent nuts and bolts operatives rather than visionaries. Obama himself, as he has said, will supply the vision. The danger is that his appointments, with rare exceptions such as the new Secretary of Labor, Hilda Solis,are small bore actors and that, unless he can find the time to consider groundbreaking  policies by tapping sources of wisdom and innovation beyond that of his appointees, his presidency may fall well short of the greatness many expect of him. 

Specifically, the Obama of Dreams is a voracious reader with far-ranging tastes and unusual curiosity. He also enjoys encountering people from a wide spectrum of humanity and who hold great diversity of opinion. But Obama is not a twenty-something student, community organizer or informal world traveller anymore. As president, his unscripted time will be severely truncated, he will simultaneously have to deal with a myriad of issues, and his access to a diversity of people and perspectives may be minimal. Before he could relax by reading and playing basketball. Now he might have to choose between the two or do less of both.

The wild card in all speculation are the historical crises Obama will inherit, which may require---out of trial and error---an unprecedented transformation of U.S. economic, political and social life. After all, neither Lincoln nor FDR thought of themselves or were "radicals" when they entered the White House. Obama's biography suggests a greater capacity for it than theirs did, but even if his political ideology is now more centrist than Dreams might suggest, his embrace of pragmatism---what works---might lead him leftward gain. We shall see soon enough.

Postscript: February 6, 2009

It is too early, of course, to answer any of the important questions about Obama's course, but there are a few signs worth noting. First, as I hoped, he seems to understand that his ability to communicate directly with the citizenry---counter-acting the mainstream media tropes (i.e. wisdom comes from the center at all times) and predilections (e.g., focus on soundbites, drama, playing stenographer to politicians instead of investigating the truth of their claims) is essential for bringing dramatic social reform

Second, Obama seems to be inclined to appoint special envoys (e.g. George Mitchell to the Mid East) to solve problems rather than allow cabinet appointees to try their hand. This suggests his cabinet officials may be utilized more for carrying out routine functions than setting policy. This should reassure those on the left that having a center-right cabinet will not necessarily mean a center-right agenda. 

Finally, it appears as if bi-partisanship is more of an Obama strategy of cooptation and less an end in itself. He will listen to many viewpoints, and is open to changing his opinions, but does not accept the idea that compromise in itself trumps choosing the best approach to problem-solving.

Finally, on a lighter note, I hope sending Henry Kissinger on a secret mission to negotiate with the Russians on nuclear proliferation was at least partially motivated by a desire his plane might crash or be forced to land in some country where he could promptly be arrested an hauled before a war crimes tribunal.

Bush's Presidential Library

Plagued by record disapproval ratings and a pair of shoes during his waning days in office, President George W. Bush hopes to burnish his legacy by establishing a presidential library. Dallas has been selected for the institution's site because Baghdad's Green Zone and Wall Street were deemed insufficiently secure until The Rapture. Aside from selecting the site Mr. Bush developed the template for this project- code named Op Fuscate.

 

The Bush presidential library will not simply be a clone of those developed by his predecessors. The most dramatic departure will be the near absence of books, reports, memos, letters and other print documents. President Bush has often stated that he does not enjoy reading and he wants his library to be particularly user-friendly for those sharing his predilection. As Vice-president Dick Cheney recently observed, "The president doesn't even like to read newspapers. He  relies on me to give him the important news. Of course, I don't cover it all. I tell him the baseball scores, but he particularly likes the comics which are hard to understand if you don't actually take a look."

 

The relative absence of evidence will not, however, mean evidence of absence. The institution plans to provide heavily redacted summaries of the kinds of printed matter available at his predecessors' libraries. For a nominal fee, visitors will be able to rent earphones and listen to tapes of Mr. Cheney reading from documents pre-selected for their uplifting content. One tape, for instance, will feature the president exulting in a 2004 letter to a friend that "The Texas Rangers beat the Yankees bad last night and this made me feel a lot better after I just was told another one of our convoys was attacked in Iraq."

 

Some highly sensitive materials will not be made available until the president chooses to declassify them at a future date, typically---never.

Besides immersing themselves in the triumphs of the current Bush Administration visitors can take time out to explore the terrain on mountain bikes, cut brush and worship at prayer services in every Christian denomination.

 

While excited about the having his own library, the president is cognizant of potential security problems. The building will be designed to thwart terrorist attacks there, and possibly elsewhere, in concert with the Department of Homeland Security.

 

A decision tio allow entry into the library will initially be based on checking photo ID, fingerprints and any records gleaned from personal, postal or electronic surveillance. In addition, behavior inside the institution will be monitored. Not surprisingly, persons requesting materials, for example, on "water-boarding endurance stats: Guantanamo vs. Abu Graihib detainees" or "extraordinary rendition travel vouchers, " among many others, will be red flagged and probably escorted to undisclosed locations for lengthy five-on-one interactions with attentive "Friends of the Library and America."

 

One certainty is that library security will inevitably be fluid, reacting constantly to emerging concerns. A case in point: only recently have rules been established requiring future visitors to have their shoes removed by armed attendants prior to entering the premises. Finally, Blackwater-trained guards, given blanket immunity for any security-related behavior they deem necessary, will have enormous discretion to rapidly respond to any suspicious speech or action. It is for this reason that visitors are requested to bring extra-clothing and toiletries, but not cameras, writing implements or recording equipment.

 

When light-heartedly questioned regarding the legality of some of the

proposed  library policies, former Attorney General and currently chief

counsel to Op Fuscate, Alberto Gonzales said "The institution will want to be involved in community outreach in the broadest sense, including identifying and neutralizing potential terrorists. President Bush wants to protect our country from them while they're at the library, not wait until they're detonating a nuclear device in Orange County, Grosse Pointe, or at a visitor's restricted country club back home.

Faux WWII Redux: An Immodest Proposal for Economic Recovery

As one reads about the grim prognosis for the U.S. economy the more likely it becomes that The Great Depression is the appropriate template for our future. Unfortunately, even the most ambitious stimulus package being contemplated by our leaders might be insufficient to bring about recovery. After all, it is generally acknowledged that only the massive public spending occasioned by U.S. participation in WWII ultimately succeeded in making Americans view "depression" as a psychological state rather than economic collapse.

No one wants to have WWIII, of course. Even if such a catastrophic event were to happen, modern weaponry---nuclear weapons and missiles---would not require the mobilization of labor that the mass production of equipment for WWII's millions of ground troops once did.

But if economically and socially useful expenditures of tax dollars can't do the job---or Republicans veto any stimulus that doesn't involve military spending--- perhaps the answer lies in mobilizing labor intensive production for a faux WWII redux.

We could reinstitute a military draft, thus automatically lowering the official unemployment rate and giving people a sense---false though it may be---that the economy is improving. Credit markets can begin to thaw and our people conspicuously consume again.

Next, an army of workers can build WWII-style tanks, ships, military aircraft and appropriate weapons to supply our faux infantry, sailors and airmen. Since the mobilization will be for a faux WWII redux weaponry can be technologically modified to make them inoperable---firing blank bullets, rockets, bombs.

As for the soldiers, sailors and marines, they can engage in massive war games with faux equipment. We can even copy the Israelis and build faux towns to engage in mock counter-insurgency games. More ambitious possibilities would involve the actual re-creation of WWII's most famous battles which could employ many of those who currently re-enact Civil War combat as directors.

Above all, faux WWII will not produce the 70 million or so military and civilian deaths worldwide the real one did. This critical fact will encourage other nations to create and mobilize their own faux military resources and participate enthusiastically since, except for a few accidents, there will be no genuine casualties. In this manner the global economy will also be rejuvenated along with our own and bring us the world's good will---real not faux---that we basked in on V-E and V-J day back in 1945.

President Obama: The Bridge From Nowhere

During the primary season I argued that Barack Obama's chance to become President hinged upon his ability to be perceived as an honorary "white," someone like Oprah Winfrey, Tiger Woods or Colin Powell. Winfrey, Woods and Powell have transcended their racial identity in a society where racism still is a significant sub-text and "blackness" is still equated for many members of the white majority with being alien, discomforting, potentially dangerous..."that one."

Obama has come close to achieving this goal because of his unflappable personality, eloquence, intelligence and political acumen. Nevertheless, until the recent economic crisis his triumph in November was still very much in doubt. Despite the great unpopularity of President Bush and  the Republican Party, John McCain and Obama were in a tight race for the White House. Had Obama been white there is little doubt he would have had a double digit lead all along instead of barely edging McCain throughout the summer.

But all that has changed. Just as there are no atheists in foxholes racism can temporarily be put aside when the black candidate seems to be better equipped to lead the country from nowhere---an economic catastrophe in the making--- while his white opponent appears to want to stay the Bushonomics course.

Every day the Dow plummets, housing values plummet,unemployment and foreclosures rise and credit remains frozen Obama's numbers rise. Even if Osama Bin Laden turned himself in to McCain it wouldn't make a difference. It's the economy, stupid.

If headline-grabbing bad economic news continues unabated until November, as it should, and GOP efforts at voter suppression fall short, there is a good possibility that Democrats can not only regain the White House but have a working majority in Congress. Obama, if he has the will and the economy is righted, can begin moving the country towards a long overdue transformation--- European style regulated capitalism with a strong social safety net and vastly reduced economic inequality. 

If Obama can make health care approach universality, pass new laws, such as the Free Employee Choice Act, enforce old ones making it easier for the 40 percent of workers who wish to unions (as opposed to the 12 percent who currently belong) to do so, and change the tax code to reduce wealth and income inequalities Democrats can put Republicans out of business for a generation.

But Obama's will is paramount and he may be tempermentally unsuited to using power to bring about deep reform as opposed to trying to find a middle ground with an opposition that may still have bark if no more bite. In his public life Obama has often seemed more devoted to the process of perpetual democratic deliberation than fighting in a partisan way to bring substantive outcomes in the lives of people. Perhaps he truly believes the truth is always in the middle and that is why he chooses a non-confrontational path.

On the other hand, Obama's autobiography, Dreams from My Father, suggests he might be biding his time and that while presenting himself as a man who wants us all to get along he is deeply aware of the uses of power and the realities of powerlessness. After all, his legislative career has been in settings in which his party did not have the votes to impose its will on Republicans. As president, he might turn out to be a decisive leader who will be comfortable using his power.

Much will depend on whether Obama will be preoccupied with being re-elected or whether he wants to leave an indelible mark as an agent of change. He can be another Bill Clinton---a modest overly cautious reformer---or take a tip from his predecessor, George W. Bush, who aggressively utilized all his power as chief executive to implement his policies. Bush also engaged in illegal and unethical conduct, of course, but many of his actions, such as the unprecedented use of signing statements, were perfectly legal, if seldom employed, tactics designed to thwart an uncooperative Congress. (With a Democrats in control of the Senate and House Obama has no need for signing statements, but still might find some creative ways to implement his policies if Democrats fall just short of a filibuster-proof 60 seates in the Senate).

Obama's campaign, of course, has already changed American politics in a profound way in several respects, most notably how to raise money, organize volunteers and defeat smear and fear tactics by rapid counter-punching and maintaining a positive message. If Democrats make big gains in Congress, state legislatures and statehouses Obama can also stump for reforms in voting laws and proceedures that can reduce voter suppression that has routinely disenfranchised hundreds of thousands if not millions throughout the country.

Obama has a resource few leaders have: the intellect and  communication skills to educate the low-information citizen. He can mobilize public opinion in behalf of a program for profound change---to speak above the clamor of the right-wing officeholders in Congress and their media allies. The economic crisis can give him that opportunity, especially if it brings Democrats effective control of the legislative branch. But even if he falls just short of a working majority in the Senate he can frighten the opposition with the spectre of the people's wrath---but only if he chooses to arouse it.

A President Obama could certainly have a great effect on race relations. His triumph might make even extremely cynical black Americans wonder whether American society has turned a corner and that racism and discrimination, while obviously still present, may not be the all-powerful forces they once were. The effect of this change of consciousness, particularly on alienated young black males, could trigger a self-fulfilling prophecy that might begin to weaken the power of the more self-defeating aspects of black underclass culture.

At the same time Obama, if successful, will make it a bit harder for  racist sentiment and discrimination to be tolerated within the white community, especially if, as is his nature, he seeks to unite all Americans around policies that make their lives easier.

Cultural changes within white and black communities would, if forthcoming, feed on each other and help the country move towards a deeper level of integration than has hitherto existed.

While outlining a best case scenario, it's necessary to acknowledge that factors beyond Obama's control could undermine his hopes. If the economy truly melts down and Obama can't fix it the racial divide could deepen as widespread insecurity leads to an exacerbation of racial tension. Whites could imagine that blacks are somehow being privileged by an Obama Administration whether true or not. Blacks might sink deeper into despair as their hopes are dashed.

The most realistic outcome of an Obama Administration is that he will bring about  incremental reform and be a black Bill Clinton who can feel the pain, or appear to, of whites and blacks. Even with modest accomplishemnts Obama's tenure will have had world-historic significance. He will be the first black leader of any country with a white majority and given the legacy of race few even a year ago could have imagined this pathbreaking accomplishment would have happened in the United States.

Child Rape and the Death Penalty: Two Cheers for the Supreme Court

On June 25, 2008 the United States Supreme Court, in a 5-4 decision, denied the applicability of the death penalty in cases of child rape. Both Barack Obama and John McCain publicly disagreed with the decision, but I wholeheartedly agree with the Court in this instance.

Besides generally opposing capital punishment I support the Court majority because of its practical concerns about child witness’ veracity, the likelihood that if the perpetrator was the parent a child might be more reluctant to report rape, and the increased likelihood that a perpetrator would kill the only witness to the crime. The Court also reflects my view that the death penalty, if ever justified, should be reserved for people who literally take a life. But to advocates of the death penalty for child rapists this is essentially what has been done to the victims, even if they have not physically died, because they believe child rape victims cannot ever be made psychologically whole. Since the Court chose not to  to assess this contention the door unfortunately has been left open to political agitation to reverse the decision. It is this matter that concerns me.

Before addressing the evidence pertaining to long-term effects of child rape on its victims it is important to be aware of the dangers of emotional reasoning. When considering adult sexual contact with children, including forcible rape, the understandable and valid disgust that people have becomes evidence, in itself, for the belief that such an event must cause long-term or even permanent damage to the victim. But feelings are not facts and it is possible for something to be reprehensible and not typically cause such enduring effects.

The social science and psychological literature on the effects of sexual assault on children is based on two kinds of studies: clinical and non-clinical research. Clinical studies involve patients who have either chosen to see a therapist or been referred to one because of real or suspected psychological problems.

One of the severe disadvantages of clinical research is that the clinician only sees a patient when a harm has already occurred or is believed to have occurred. There is no way for the clinician to know with any certainty in most cases whether presenting symptoms, e.g., depression, sleeping disorders, anxiety, poor relationships with others, or sexual dysfunction, are necessarily caused by any particular life event. The same symptom can, in fact, have a variety of sources. The retrospective vantage point of the clinician---trying to construct a narrative to understand the patient from their past life---lends itself to the facile embrace of long-held but often unexamined just-so stories.

Since Freud Westerners widely accept the  belief that childhood social experiences trump all others in determining our psychological and social functioning as adults, but the evidence for this is scant. In fact, experiences at any age can make or break us and children may be more resilient in handling trauma than adults. We are now far more sensitive to the reality of child sexual abuse than was the case in 1940, but that doesn't mean that our attempt to use abuse as an explanation for adult unhappiness is more valid simply because our culture endorses that perspective. The role of biology, pre-existing personality traits, parents, peer groups, previous trauma and the larger culture mediate our responses to what happens to us.

Clinicians also are deficient as theorists because they don't see patients that experienced sexual abuse or rape who do not have psychological symptoms, only those that do or are believed to. The asymptomatic have no need or generally any desire to see a therapist because they were sexually victimized as children any more than the non-alcoholic children of alcoholics do. The self-selection bias of patients means therapists can easily be fooled into thinking there is a 1:1 ratio between sexual victimization and long-term or permanent effects.

Given these problems it's not surprising that clinical studies reveal a strong relationship between childhood victimization and adult disorders. But, even so, a rare prospective clinical study in which children believed to be sexually abused were followed through 18 months of therapy, found that 25% had no symptoms at the time of referral and only 25% continued to have them at the end of the period of the study. The argument that symptoms could show up years later is more of an act of faith than one based on concrete evidence, because if that did happen it would not be possible to attribute it  to the childhood trauma without ruling out many other factors.

Because clinical research is so flawed studies using random samples of the general population are far more valuable in assessing the psychological impact of trauma. Such studies have, through depth interviews, compared the adult functioning of persons who had sex of any kind in childhood with those who did not. In the landmark work, The Social Organization of Human Sexuality (1994), Ed Laumann et al. examined sexual histories of 3300 Americans between the ages of 18-59 and found no significant difference in the psychological and sexual adjustment between those who had any sex with adults when they were under age 14. When "forced" sex was considered by itself, no relationship was found between having such an experience and subsequent functioning in adulthood. Moreover, various measures of severity in forced sex didn't affect outcomes. Unfortunately, the data did not indicate the differential effects of forced sex by age and so it is possible younger victims were more affected in later life than older ones. But, young children do not necessarily take longer than adults to recover from trauma and in cases where being traumatized is heavily dependent on cultural factors, i.e. understanding what is considered normal behavior, very young children might be less likely than older ones and even adults to be symptomatic.

In addition to the Laumann et al. research three pychologists, Rind, Bauserman and Tromovich reviewed 59 studies and also found little evidence that child sexual abuse caused long-term psychological damage. Their work appeared in 1998 in Psychological Bulletin, a prestigious academic journal. It was promptly denounced by right-wing pundits who falsely accused the authors of  defending child sexual abuse, even though this was explicitly denied by the researchers. Malcolm Gladwell, the  noted science writer, cited this work in "Getting Over it," The New Yorker (November 8, 2004), in the context of making the argument that we live in an era when people are believed, without compelling evidence, to be extraordinarily fragile in the face of adversity.

Some researchers who have studied child victims of sexual abuse believe dealing with the justice system (i.e., being witnesses, including all the preparation) can be more traumatic in the long-term than the sexual abuse. This view was supported by my experience as a grand juror many years ago in a case where three 8 year olds were trading oral sex for access to a video game run by a local businessman. The first victim got her friends in on what they believed to be a great opportunity. Only when a neighbor's suspicions led to an arrest did the girls truly understand what was going on in the eyes of the larger society. By the time they testified before us three years later they could barely make eye contact. We had no difficulty indicting the perpetrator, but wondered whether the girls would have been better off had the arrangement not been discovered, they came to realize they were being exploited, ceased cooperating, and freely chose  to call the police.

Most people don't look at clinical, let alone non-clinical research in making judgments about the effects of sexual victimization of children. They rely on magazine articles and television shows which utilize anecdotal evidence. Or they draw upon personal experiences or  those of  people they know. But such evidence is almost completely worthless if one wishes to draw general conclusions since it's possible to come up with cases to prove any point. A friend of mine's son went to jail for some teenage alcohol-induced brawl. Prior to incarceration for six months he never took school seriously and was constantly abusing drugs and alcohol. Incarceration totally changed him in a positive way, and so his mother believes it was a great thing that saved her  son. But she wouldn't argue this would be the case for everyone. If her son appeared on Oprah, however, her vast audience would view things differently unless there  were also guests who had the opposite experience.

I believe it is unfortunate when people don't appreciate the resilience of our species and assume that we are so fragile that terrible experiences will destroy our lives forever.  But human beings cope with mortality, loss of loved ones, natural disasters, and war and keep on ticking. One doesn't have to deny victim's suffering to believe that they can and generally do move on. One of the unfortunate consequences of the "recovery" movement is that victims often stay locked into their status as victims because they are encouraged by well-meaning people to do so.

To return to the Supreme Court ruling, I feel that there is a difference between killing someone and doing terrible things to them but leaving them alive. Because with life there are possibilities that a homicide victim does not have. The Court did the right thing even if their reasoning never challenged the notion that child rape inevitably ruins victims forever.

Obama's "Whiteness," Black Racism and Anti-Semitism

Barack Obama, by all accounts, is a man devoid of any prejudice towards white people as a group and Jews in particular. Yet, in the final debate between him and Hillary Clinton, MSNBC moderator Tim Russert thought it was vital to ask whether Obama rejected support from Louis Farrakhan, the well-known, but no longer influential, black leader of The Nation of Islam.

Obama gave a masterful reply, but it's foolish to think the sub-text behind the question, is Obama "white" on the inside regardless of his skin color, will go away. The call for Obama to "denounce" or "reject" Farrakhan, a man who long ago expressed anti-Semitic sentiments which he claims he now rejects, but has also been a vociferous critic of  self-destructive attitudes and behavior within the black underclass, will surely be followed by further demands to denounce Jeremiah Wright, a black Chicago pastor who Obama has long been close to. No doubt Al Sharpton will also have to be pilloried. Eventually Obama may have to repudiate Barry Bonds and OJ.

It is very difficult for a black to become an honorary white person, like Oprah Winfrey, Tiger Woods, or Colin Powell in American society, and Obama cannot become President without achieving such a status.

Whites, especially those aspiring to high office, never have to pass a remotely equivalent reverse test. True, today they can, as George Allen learned in Virginia after his infamous "macaca" statement, have their political careers abruptly end if they exhibit overt racist sentiments. But they are not routinely asked to denounce not only the racist expressions but the "support" (something in the Farrakhan case which merely amounted to a hope Obama would win) of prejudiced people, and never the person himself.

Will John McCain have to refuse to appear on the resurrected Imus show or denounce any support Imus, a long-time McCain fan, is likely to express?  Although Rush Limbaugh and other nationally prominent right-wing talk show hosts have been highly critical of McCain, will he be asked to eschew any support they might eventually give him because of their own prejudicial comments over the years?

Interestingly, in the days following the Obama-Farrakhan story, McCain has explicitly rejected the need to repudiate John Hagee, an evangelical television minister who has expressed anti-Catholic prejudices along with other inflammatory views by simply saying that he doesn't have to agree with all the beliefs of supporters in order to accept their endorsement. Obama cannot get away with that reasonable stance even though he never sought Farrakhan's endorsement while McCain actively courted Hagee and appeared with him on stage. 

Besides the issue of sub-text in Russert's query and the double-standard black political candidates have to face it's worth considering an additional issue: is there a difference between prejudices held by whites towards blacks and what is commonly called reverse racism.

Looking at public opinion polls conducted over many decades there is no question that prejudice towards blacks has precipitously declined in the United States. Still, in 1999 an ABC television poll revealed that 32 percent of whites admitted to at least some racist feelings. Forty percent of blacks said they had at least some of the same feelings about whites. A Zogby poll in 2007 indicated about a third of the American people harbor such feelings, but there was no racial breakdown of the results.

To say there is some level of prejudice held by a significant proportion of whites and blacks (and, of course, all other groups) is not to say that these feelings are deep or, more importantly, desire to actively discriminate or do harm is common. In fact, while an Anti-Defamation League survey in the early 1990s found black anti-Semitism of any magnitude substantially higher than among whites, only 12 percent were deemed to have high levels of anti-Semitism based on attitudes. Moreover, some blacks challenged the overall study by saying that certain items used to measure anti-Semitism (e.g., a belief that Jews like to stick together) might well have been said out of admiration for the perceived community-mindedness of Jews, not as a criticism.

But to say that black prejudice against whites (including the sub-category of anti-Semitism) has the same significance as similar white prejudice (including anti-black feelings by Jews which exists, albeit in lower numbers than among non-Jews) is to ignore completely the issue of power imbalances between the two races in this country.

Even if black antipathy continues to exist in slightly greater numbers than white prejudice blacks have little ability to act on it. They are not often in a position to prevent whites from moving into a neighborhood whites wish to live in, obtain employment, or any other thing of value. Prejudice without the power to act upon it simply becomes muttering to oneself or a fantasy...one likely to be felt more strongly by a people that have suffered from slavery, Jim Crow and still substantial discrimination in employment, housing and a host of other arenas. The need to have Obama denounce this or that black figure simply reflects both lingering white racism and a guilty conscience that wants absolution without expiation. Tim Russert appointed himself the representative of those white voters who seem to require a guarantee that if they vote for Obama all will be both forgiven and forgotten and, above all, no sacrifice of still substantial privileges of white skin will be required.

Postscipt May 9, 2008

The tumult regarding Obama's relationship with Rev. Jeremiah Wright  throughout the nomination process---one that will continue until November in some form---was predictable even if the specific path the controversy took was not. Interestingly, the mainstream print and broadcast media almost completely ignored Wright's low-key interview with Bill Moyers on PBS three days before the Reverend imploded during a Q and A at the National Press Club. Why was this? Was it not newsworthy because Wright's demeanor undecut the pre-existing narrative of him as a bigoted and unpatriotic hater and media narratives,once established, are set in stone. If so, why? Had the Moyers interview been widely discussed and his demonization halted perhaps Wright might have performed a few days later, though he may have had other reasons not to, i.e. anger at Obama for distancing himself from his pastor.

Interestingly, Hillary Clinton periodically tried but failed to tie Obama to Farrakhan. The mass media, had it wished to thwart that effort and call a halt to "guilt by association" tactics could have chosen to show a clip on youtube (Google "Rendell" and "Farrakhan") of her major supporter in Pennsylvania, Governor Ed Rendell. Rendell, who is Jewish and therefore particularly unlikely to be perceived as someone "re-habilitating" Farrakhan, is seen effusively praising him when he was mayor of Philadelphia in 1997, after inviting the minister to the city to help quell a civil disturbance that involved the black community. Rendell noted in his remarks  that many of his friends were not pleased that he came to an assembly to laud Farrakhan, but that he had come to realize his positive contributions to the black community and Islam's emphasis on family values.

Despite the efforts of Clinton, the GOP, and mainstream media---with the late aid of Rev. Wright---to derail the Obama campaign, as of this date Obama appears certain to have won the nomination and has an excellent chance to become President. Being black might have helped as well as hurt him in the nomination process---given the overwhelming support he eventually, not initially, garnered in the black community.

But the general election is a different matter. If he weren't black there is little doubt, given the state of the economy, Iraq's continuing nighmare, his youth, looks, intelligence and eloquence, Obama would be a heavy favorite to triumph in November. But with his racial identity and the resultant difficulty finding significant support among older and/or working class whites he might fall short. His opponent, John McCain, may publically denounce efforts to inject race into the campaign, but  his allies will find every opportunity to do so. Obama, particularly after his forceful denunciation of Wright, has taken a huge step towards becoming an acceptable black man in white eyes, but his travails are not over.

The War at Home: The Political Campaigns

In politics addition often can best be obtained by subtraction. By this yardstick the best news in the marathon race to be the next US President was the demise of Rudy Giuliani's candidacy. Of all the aspirants running on the Republican side Giuliani was by far the the most dangerous threat to our already fragile democratic institutions. He is a dictator by nature, the closest to Dick Cheney in his willingness to circumvent established procedures as a matter of principle and maximize the powers of the President.

The Bush Administration, in addition to its policy failures, has exposed the inherent weakness of the Constitution's separation of powers through its frequent use of signing statements, the aggressive advancement of the "unitary theory" of Executive power, and habitual disregard of congressional oversight of its activities.

But Bush himself is primarily authoritarian as a defensive strategy---he is a control freak because he fears exposure as an Emperor with no clothes and has a need to cover up his authorization of many illegal acts (e.g., wiretapping, extraordinary rendition, sanctioning torture). By contrast, Giuliani is more like Russia's maximum leader, Putin, someone who seeks total power out of ideology, a sense of entitlement and self-righteousness. Moreover, as the New York Times (January 22, 2008,p.1) has documented, Giuliani as Mayor took extraordinary lengths to destroy anyone who had the temerity to criticize, oppose or even annoy him. With the enhanced powers of a President his vengeful propensities could have wreaked far greater damage at home and abroad and be far more difficult to restrain.

McCain, now almost certainly the Republican nominee, unlike Giuliani, appears to have respect for democratic government in theory and practice. McCain's initial advantage as a candidate rests upon the the mainstream media's love of him and its continuing to propagate the false view that he is a maverick with a deep sense of integrity. But McCain has waffled on many issues he embraced in the past---notably campaign finance reform, opposition to the regressive Bush tax cuts, even his previously unequivocal condemnation of waterboarding--- and was obsequious in genuflecting to the social conservatives he castigated in 2000. He is nearly as much an opportunist as Mitt Romney was, but has avoided being perceived as such. (cf. Jonathan Chait, "Maverick vs. Iceman: The Cold Calculations of the Straight Talker" The New Republic (February 27, 2008).

McCain's vaunted integity has also taken a beating of late with the publication in The New York Times (February 21) of a detailed investigation into  his questionable relationship with a lobbyist for telecommunicatioins companies seeking help from the Senate Commerce Committee he served on. The story outlined  other ethical lapses in which McCain accepted favors from persons whose business interests might be advanced by his senate actions.

McCain's major policy weakness in November should be his unwavering commitment to achieving victory in Iraq. Despite the somewhat illusory military gains in the past months, achieved largely because both the mainstream Sunni insurgents and the Shia both detest Al Qaeda-inspired jihadists, not because they have reconciled their own conflicts, most Americans believe the war was a mistake and want our troops out within a year. If the Sunni-Shia civil war resumes---the Mahdi army and newly-armed Sunni Awakening (supported by us to destroy jihadis but as easily capable of turning their attention elsewhere) go at it---it will be hard to claim progress is being made. There is still, of course, no progress in regard to a political reconciliation and the Kurds, America's only real ally in Iraq, are increasingly at odds with both the Sunni and Shiites.

McCain also has no answers that the general public wants to hear about fighting the economic slump. He can't suddenly become an economic populist without Republicans deserting him. As it is the influential far-right and their media flacks will be hard put to endorse him as a lesser evil to the Democrats.

If the Democrats focus on McCain's flip-flopping, Iraq and the economy they should win. But which Democrat? Obama may be somewhat to the left of Clinton on foreign policy. His advisors have been against the war in Iraq from the outset, while Clinton's initially backed the invasion. In addition, given the long-standing presence of gender and racial stereotyping which Republicans will try to exploit and the mainstream media, acting as stenographers, amplify, Clinton, if elected, might well have to endure pressure to prove her "macho" credentials by unnecessarily brandishing military weapons.

Obama might avoid this as the last time a black man was denigrated for lack of courage on the national stage was just before Jack Johnson destroyed Jim Jeffries, the "Great White Hope", in the ring back in 1910. In short, the death toll in American soldiers and foreign nationals might be significantly less in an Obama Administration.

On the other hand, Obama seems slightly to Clinton's right on domestic policy, especially health care, but I feel he has a greater upside than she does if elected. His policies are probably less set in stone than hers might be and when in the Illinois State Senate he was clearly in the left- of- center wing of that chamber as well as having been a community organizer and civil rights lawyer.

Finally, Clinton, as noted in a perceptive article by Jonathan Chait in The New Republic (February 15, 2008), has perhaps learned too much from the past she and Bill shared when he was Governor of Arkansas and President. Chait argues that their liberal policies put them at odds with Arkansas' conservative political culture and Clinton was voted out of office after one term. They came to believe that center-right incrementalism was the only way to survive. It worked in Arkanasas, as Bill eventually won a second term.

As President, Clinton initially veered somewhat leftward, but when militant right-wing opposition materialized, he not only retreated on gays in the military but made policy self-censorship into a strategy he believed vital for his political survival---triangulation. Despite great communicative skills he only spoke out dramatically for ----NAFTA.

Polling has long shown that a majority of Americans are willing to pay higher taxes for universal health care, want government to curb corporate power and protect the environment.  But Clinton was afraid to push boldly with, for example, "fireside chats" for these priorities. President Bush, by contrast is willing to use even powers he doesn't have to achieve his goals, and these rarely have had public support.

Perhaps Hillary Clinton is tougher than her husband was and perhaps more committed to social change, but her Senate record and attempts to play it safe on many issues---especially Iraq---suggest otherwise. To be fair, once in power, she might be more inclined to flex her muscles in behalf of goals no one doubts she passionately believes in.

Obama, although often moderate in subtance, perhaps also for strategic reasons, may be more willing, if elected, to use his oratorical skills and charm to remind the citizenry of what it already believes in and bring them down a path they are already receptive to. He might be more effective by going over the heads of the pols rather than try to run through them if he can mobilize public opinion and thereby intimidate obstructionists in the Congress.

Regarding their chances to win a general election Obama is more acceptable to independents, but Clinton probably has a temperment more suited to the trench warfare needed to defeat the swift-boating to come. The Clinton operatives do know how to be  aggressive in winning elections even if they forget these lessons once in office when it becomes time to govern. The important question of whether a "hidden" anti-black or anti-woman vote will offset the expected leaps in voting by these two groups is unknown, but one can expect Republicans to remind voters in subtle ways that they are the party of and for white men.

Of course, McCain might eschew this sort of campaign, but he's already compromised on so many other issues to woo the right surely he can rationalize one more departure from his "principled" self. Even if he can't, the right-wing financiers of swift-boaters, with or without his permission or support, will try to take the Democratic nominee down by any means necessary. There is a chance,however, those who bankroll these operations might be so anti-McCain that they would prefer losing this time to having the nature of the Republican Party be altered, perhaps indefinitely, in a more moderate direction.

Another factor that may operate if McCain is the Republican nominee is the mass media's clear preference for Obama's personal style over Clinton's. McCain's informality will be contrasted to Hillary's stiffness and as we know from 2000 Gore's remoteness made reporters warm to Bush and never look at their respective qualifications, views and records too carefully. This unquestionably played a role in Gore's defeat as reporters were quick to seize on any Gore misstep and ignore Bush's. Once a narrative ( e.g., opportunist, dumb, straight-talker) has been created for a candidate the media rarely re-examines it. 

My suggestion is that whichever Democrat wins the nomination choose Virginia Senator Jim Webb as a running mate. Although Vice-Presidential candidates normally have a marginal impact on the race---two percent at best---Webb has several major assets:

---A distinguished military background. Webb, a platoon leader and commander in the Marines, was wounded in Vietnam. He became an Assistant Secretary of Defense and Secretary of the Navy in the Reagan Administration. His background and strong anti-Iraq war sentiments can be invaluable in neutralizing McCain.

--- Webb is sensitive to working class economic grievances.

--- He can be a pit bull as in his confrontation with Bush when the latter asked him about his son in Iraq and Webb said that was a private matter he felt no need to reduce to small talk with the person whose Iraq policy Webb detested. VP candidates are often asked to be the "tough cop" and rough up the opposition in a manner that would turn off voters if the presidential candidate followed suit. Webb will relish the role.

---Even if geographical ticket-balancing is no longer important, demography matters. Both Clinton and Obama will struggle to win enough white male voters and Webb has the macho swagger (and substance) to perhaps undercut the sexist and racist inclinations that might deter such voters from considering either candidate.

Postscript: May 9, 2008

Much has happened in the campaign warfare between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama since my original post. Obama has apparently defeated Clinton and Clinton has increasingly discredited herself among Democrats by adopting racist and jingoistic appeals along with a disresepect for Party rules she previously agreed to. Besides damaging Obama for the general election without benefiting herself Clinton's reckless ambition has probably destroyed her chances for a second run for the White House should Obama lose in November. Party activists and fundraisers will not forget her disgraceful behavior and should she seek re-election to the Senate or the position of Senate majority leader she probably will face significant opposition. She is well on her way to becoming Joe Lieberman in drag---a pariah.

Ken Burns' WWII vs. WWII

Ken Burns has earned his reputation as a great documentary filmmaker of American history. His works not only educate, but retrieve the past in a sensual and a spritual dimension as well. Burns' ability to animate photographs, and move us with haunting soundtracks and the recitation of personal letters---most famously the juxtaposition of Ashokan Farewell and the almost unbearable  letter Sullivan Ballou sent his soon to be widowed wife during the Civil War---testify to his extraordinary gifts.

Now he is presenting us with another documentary of war. But this time it is not simply on American soil, but the Second World War. Judging from the opening episode, he has lost none of his skill, finding compelling photographs and testimonials from those on the the front and the homefront. But it may be that Burns' romance with American history---and Americans---won't serve him as ably in this project, for to capture WWII is to come to grips with some very unromantic realities:

a) The U.S.  entered the war two years after Britain declared war on Germany after the latter invaded Poland on September 1, 1939. Isolationist sentiment was very strong until the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor. While enlistments dramatically increased for two months after the attack, they then fell back. Moreover, the marriage rate rose dramatically in 1942 and the birth rate in 1943 rose to the highlest level in twenty years. Being married and having children didn't insure  avoiding the draft, but meant one would be called after those who were single.

b) As Max Hastings, in his exhaustive account of the last year of the European war, Armageddon: The Battle for Germany, 1944-1945  shows, by the time American troops fought in Europe, after D-Day in June 1944, Germany had effectively lost the war. Their defeat was largely the result of the herculean effort by the Soviet Union, led by a man arguably as evil as Hitler, which accounted for 88 percent of all German casualties. America played a major role in supplying their allies with food and weapons when they were desperately needed, but we did not provide the manpower that was necessary to break the back of the German army.

Allowing the Soviets to bear the brunt of the ground war was a deliberate, if understandable, decision to save American lives once it seemed clear Hitler's days were numbered. Neverthless, that decision---to avoid rapid advance and aggressively engaging the Germans---prolonged the war by many months.

The total number of American war deaths, civilian and military, in all theatres were at most 400,000, slightly less than British casualties. By contrast, the Soviet Union  lost almost 25,000,000, one third of whom were soldiers. Statistics don't tell the whole story, but they are a story worth telling to place the American role in Europe in context.

c) The performance of the American infantrymen in Europe was inferior to that of the German and Soviet armies. As Major General James Gavin observed in his diary in February 1945 "With better troops, I see no reason why we could not run all over them. The public will never know nor appreciate this. Our American army individually means well and tries hard, but it is not the army one reads about in the press. It is untrained and completely inefficient...certainly our infantry lacks courage and elan."

The relatively minor role of the US infantrymen in the defeat of the Nazis in Europe and the poor performance of our troops has been documented by virtually all serious military historians, that is, those who see the historian's role as describing and understanding reality as opposed to altering it to support what one wishes to believe.

This is not to diminish the suffering of American (and all other)soldiers on the front lines in any war or the extreme bravery of many of them. But, at a time when Americans are at war once again, clear-headedness better serves the nation and the world. For there is nothing romantic about war and there is no need to refer to largely invented patriotic and martial traditions in order to justify present sacrifices, especially in unnecessary conflicts.  WWII was a necessary one, but they are few and far between and being better suited to make love not war is not the worst thing one can say about a nation.

It is also important to understand that the explanation for the superiority of Germany and the Soviet Union as military machines can be explained in part by ideology when Germans were on the offensive and fear when they were pushed back into defending their own homeland at the war's end, as well as worries about punishment for desertion. On the Soviet side, it was a combination of patriotism, revenge and fear of the draconian punishment visited upon those who displayed, or even appeared to display, cowardice in the face of the enemy. American soldiers rarely had  ideological motives for engaging the enemy, were not avenging, at least in Europe, an assault on their nation, and had relatively little fear of being shot for cowardice or desertion.

d) American soldiers did not behave markedly better than those of other nations in the treatment of military prisoners. Captured soldiers were often executed. In the war against Japan, barbarity  was freely exhibited by both sides. For Americans, the Asian theatre was the one which generated more passion: revenge for Pearl Harbor as well as the mistreatment of American prisoners and war dead. Race differences exacerbated feelings of mutual hostility and American soldiers mutilated Japanese bodies and tortured and killed prisoners just as they were victimized by the Japanese. Skulls of Japanese war dead were often sent as souveneirs to wives and girlfriends.

The novelist, Philip Caputo, was told by a Marine seargeant in Vietnam, where Caputo served as a lieutenant, "Before you leave here, sir, you're going to learn that one of the most brutal things in the world is your average nineteen year old American boy."  Those average boys'  forbears fought the Japanese. Their progeny are in Iraq and elsewhere.

As E.B. Sledge observes in With the Old Breed, his riveting memoir of a marine in one of many battles in the Pacific war, "Peleliu....made savages of us all. We existed in an environment totally incomprehensible to men behind the lines---service troops and civilians.

e) While America did not single-handedly defeat the Nazis, there is no question we were decisive in the war against Japan. Yet, even here, recent scholarship has undermined what had been a nearly universal belief: the dropping of Atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki forced Japan to surrender.

In 2005 historian Tsuyoshi Hasegawa, published Racing the Enemy: Stalin, Truman and the Surrender of Japan . Hasegawa, unlike other scholars is fluent in Japanese, Russian and English and was able to examine documents in all three languages to uncover the perspectives of the US, Japanese and Russians during the end game in the Pacific. Apparently, while the dropping of the bombs might have been necessary in moving Japan to contemplate surrender, it was not sufficient. What proved decisive was the Soviet Union's thrust into Manchuria to fulfill its pledge at Potsdam to enter the war against Japan.

The Japanese government feared that the Soviets would seek the return of territories lost in the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-05 if they had the time to play an important role in the current campaign. The spectre of such a development tipped the scales in favor of surrender to the Americans.

Burns' documentary will surely deliver an indelible cinematic experience, both educational and aesthetic. I hope he also covers in depth some of the well-documented issues raised above. If not, the effort will fall short of what could be a watershed in the maturation of our society: taking the blinders off when viewing WWII. If that can be accomplished it will be far easier to develop an appropriate level of humility in dealing with our role in the world today and in the future.

Virginia Tech and Righteous Slaughter: The "Morality" of Mass Murder

The horrifying events at Virginia  Tech this week will undoubtedly lead to  many efforts to comprehend what seems incomprehensible at first glance. We've been down this road before, of course---trying to understand what caused the events and  what it tells us about our society. After the Columbine massacre Goth music and costume seemed to be the answer to some---the culture of nihilism.  If one examines many cases of mass murder by individuals, however, no common ideological commitments predominate.  Fortunately, almost all adherents to any ideology don't end up shooting perfect strangers. Mass killing is an extremely rare phenomenon after all.

The fact is the ideology that animates mass killers can vary  or, in the Virginia Tech case and many others, there need not be one at all. But that isn't to say that these events are not motivated by morality, albeit a twisted manifestation of one or another. Indeed what seems to be common in these cases is seething resentments against a group of individuals or an entire class of people  who have violated, in the minds of the killers, deeply held values---or alternately, must be slain to uphold these values.

It is perhaps no accident that mass killing terrain appear almost always to be reatively small seemingly idyllic communities or enclaves---precisely the settings where people can have illusions about the validity of absolute values or seethe at those who transgress against them. People who live in big cities, by contrast, rarely have romantic fantasies about human pefection or a loving community. They tend to be cynical and while cynicism isn't an appealing characteristic in humans it just might innoculate against a propensity towards mass murder.

If this thesis is true we should consider ourselves lucky that there aren't more Virginia Techs and Columbines because there are probably many millions of  marginalized true-believers out there. To turn righteousness into massacre there are probably many  precipitating factors that come in to play. Very few of them are of a nature that  intervention can reasonably occur. People have a right to be weird, loners, have odd beliefs. We can't confine all the millions that do in order to protect the society from the one every few years who will kill indiscriminately. That is why zero-tolerance programs in schools are apt to damage far more lives than can be saved by preventing ---if they even can be prevented---Virginia Techs. They are, at the extreme, the domestic variant of our ill-managed War on Terror. Labeling , punishing or "treating"  large numbers who will never cause harm to others---or themselves---to prevent a mass murder.

The only  social  policy  that actually might make a difference, at least in regard to body counts, is the one we have shown as a society least commitment to: preventing  easy access to weapons that can kill large numbers of people in a short time.The current mass killing poster boy, without the capability of firing many rounds in a matter of seconds would have simply been unable, with firearms at least, to be as lethal as he was. Perhaps he could have shot one or two people in a classroom before being taken down, but not dozens.

So apart from eliminating assault weapons I'm afraid our society just  has to expect that what sociologist Jack Katz calls "righteous slaughter", is the price we must pay every once in a long while for our proclivity to embrace absolute values and disdain ethical relativism, situation ethics and other  more nuanced ways of  judging others.

It is also worth putting the events in Virginia in a larger perspective.The kind of mass killing perpetrated by lone individuals (or the occasional duo) naturally gets intense media coverage but the far more costly state sponsored-mass killing, which has some of the same dynamics ---the demonization of the "enemy"  and the perceived righteousness of the cause ---often gets short shrift, especially when, it goes on day in and day out.

Had Mr. Cho Seung-Hui, not been preoccupied with "rich kids" and "promiscuous girls", put on a military uniform and gone after "terrorists" in Iraq---even if  the so-called collateral damage to non-combatants predictably dwarfs that inflicted on sanctioned targets---he would be getting medals instead of becoming  infamous for slaughtering  innocents. This is  because in "militaryspeak", if someone is killed by our soldiers that proves they were indeed the enemy.

Winter Soldier, the 1971 documentary in which former American soldiers in Vietnam candidly discuss the atrocities committed against civilians they witnessed and/or participated in, vividly presents this aspect of war. The invasion of Iraq has simply substituted "towelheads" for "gooks" in  the process by which humans become things eligible for mass killing.  Not a distinctly different process from that which made Cho Seung-Hui so lethal.

Social science research has also established that homicide rates in general rise in the aftermath of warfare because of a densitization towards violent death. In the U.S., for example, murder rates nationwide declined precipitously in the 1990s , but have, of late, begun to rise.  The  incremental  increase in routine murders, like the mounting deaths in Iraq, doesn't  produce 24/7 media attention given to spectacular events such as the Virginia episode, but, once again,the overall body count  dwarfs what any single mass killer accomplishes.